Going south again! (4)

Another storm headed for mainly central/southern Utah with 8-16" snow expected for the Wasatch Plateau.  Click on the below image for the WRF-GFS model forecasted snow for this storm.

Smallish storm (3)

Plan on mainly lower valley rain and mountain snow to move through Utah from northwest to southeast starting on Monday afternoon in northern Utah, most rain /snow showers pushing out of southeastern Utah by Tuesday evening. Most areas look mainly dry by the second half of Tuesday night except south of the Great Salt Lake where lake effect snow showers are expected to kick in ending by mid morning on Wednesday. In general look for 2-6" for most Utah mountain areas (7-11" Oquirrh Mtns)  above 7,000 ft with this storm, local 1-3" valley snow from lake effect in the Tooele Valley and western Salt Lake Valley. Click on the below image for the WRF model forecasted snow for this storm.

Weakening storm for Utah (2)

A weakening storm is expected to move into Utah on Tuesday with valley rain and mountain snow showers, most rain/snow showers ending on Thursday morning. Temperatures do get cold enough for the rain to change to snow in the valleys along the Wasatch Front by Wednesday. Plan on a general 1-3" (local 4-8") of snow for most Utah mountains above 7,000 ft. Click on the below picture for the WRF model forecasted snow between 5pm Monday and 5pm Thursday.

October 2015 Climatic Summary

Click on the below link
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/slc/climate/CLM/October2015_Climatic_Summary.pdf

First base building snow of the season (1)

The first significant snow of the season is expected to fall on Thursday into Thursday night mainly over the southern Utah mountains. Plan on a general 3-6" for the southern Utah mountains mainly above 8,000 ft, look for a general 1/2-3" for the northern Utah mountains (locally 3-6" Uinta Mtns) focused above 8,000 ft. Below is the WRF model forecasted snow through 6am on Friday.

November Outlook

Plan on above normal precipitation for the southern and eastern areas of Utah with warmer than normal temperatures for the western and northern areas.

September 2015 Climatic Summary

Click on the below link
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/slc/climate/CLM/September2015_Climatic_Summary.pdf

El Niño Forecast for Utah

This winter is very likely going to be a El Niño winter, possibly one of the strongest on record. See the below map for precipitation anomalies during a typical El Niño winter. Go to https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/united-states-el-ni%C3%B1o-impacts-0 to see the general North America El Niño winter impact. In general weak/moderate El Niño's have no statistical impact on the Wasatch Front and northern Utah weather, slight increase towards a wet winter in Southern Utah. A strong El Niño like the one forecasted this winter do slightly increase the chance of above normal precipitation for the Wasatch Front and Northern Utah, greatly increases the chances for a wet winter in southern Utah. The last 5 strong El Niño events were 1957-1958, 1965-1966, 1972-1973, 1982-1983, and 1997-1998. In these years the Alta UDOT November through April snowfall averaged 554" which is above the long term average of 490". Not a big increase for Alta but it should be noted that many of the storms during a El Niño years come from the south which is typically not good for the Cottonwoods, much better for Sundance/Park City areas and other areas that do well in a southerly flow.

For this winter plan on 80-90% of normal for the northern Wasatch, 90-100% for the central Wasatch, 100-110% of normal for the southern Wasatch, 110-120% for central Utah, 120%+ for southern and southeastern Utah. 

October Outlook

Plan on above normal temperatures for all of Utah with above normal precipitation for the southeast areas.

August 2015 Climatic Summary

Click on the below link
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/slc/climate/CLM/August2015_Climatic_Summary.pdf