New Focus

I'm now mostly a retired meteorologist but still love to watch Utah weather. I will continue to update the Utah weather cam images and Utah weather links pages and occasionally post Utah weather related information. I'm spending more time enjoying Utah snow skiing, cycling, hiking, and water skiing.

Climate change

First, climate change and the current episode of global warming is real and to claim otherwise is disingenuous. The peak of the last ice age occurred roughly 20,000 years ago, the peak of the next ice age is expected to occur about 80,000 years from now. Over the past 2,000+ years Earth has experienced multiple warming and cooling periods including the Roman Warm Period, the Dark Ages Cold Period, the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age, and the current warming period. Most (not all) of these variations in temperature can be explained by the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface.

Human activity is certainly responsible for some portion of the current warming, particularly through deforestation and urbanization. However many physicists who have a deep understanding of thermodynamics at the molecular level (NOT climatologists or meteorologists), argue that variation in solar radiation is the primary driver of climate change. Changes in incoming solar radiation can largely be explained by orbital cycles, sunspot activity, cloud cover, and volcanic eruptions. I think we can all agree that the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface plays a significant role in global temperatures and climate.

One factor often overlooked that influences the amount of solar radiation that reaches the earth's surface is cosmic rays. Cosmic rays ionize the atmosphere which provide condensation nuclei for water droplets to condense on. A decrease in cosmic rays results in fewer ions, reduced cloud formation, increased solar radiation reaching the surface, and warmer temperatures. Conversely, an increase in cosmic rays leads to more ionization, increased cloud cover, reduced solar radiation reaching the surface, and cooler temperatures. Cosmic rays originate both within and beyond our solar system and the number that reach Earth's atmosphere depends on several factors, main factor being the earth's magnetic field.

The only computer climate models that have come close to accurately reproducing past climate changes have relied primarily on factors that affect the amount of solar radiation reaching the earth's surface, NOT  greenhouse gases. CO₂ and other greenhouse gases (including water vapor which is by far the most abundant) have long been a theory of climate change but many physicists have proven otherwise.



Climate Change Theory (Douglas J Cotton, B.Sc (Physics))  http://www.climate-change-theory.com


Article about solar variations based on Jupiter-Saturn and the 11-year solar cycle https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364682612000648

 Article about how increased CO2 cools the atmosphere http://ruby.fgcu.edu/courses/twimberley/EnviroPhilo/CoolingOfAtmosphere.pdf

Astronomically based decadal-scale empirical harmonic climate model http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682611003385

Global temperature report of the lower troposphere https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate

That's 0.3% consensus, not 97%! https://joannenova.com.au/2013/07/thats-a-0-3-consensus-not-97


Documentary "The Great Global Warming Swindle". https://youtu.be/H3IhIUBghPc


Data from https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate


Average of 18 non tree ring proxies of temperature from 12 locations around the northern hemisphere published by Craig Loehle in 2007.



General chart of the effect of sunspot activity & Milankovitch orbital cycles have on the earths temps.



Interglacial Temperature over the last 10,000 years.


Global mean temp over the last 500,000 years, snowflakes mark the peaks of the ice ages.


In the past CO2 increases lag behind global temperature increases by about 800 yrs.






6 comments:

  1. Hi Scott,

    I read your exchange of climate-change related posts in the SL Trib the other day. While I agree with you, on the Trib boards you are casting pearls before swine.
    My lady and I are amateur geology enthusiasts and as such, recognize the truth in what you say.
    The tribune boards are filled with people who think more laws and government spending will solve everything, on all issues.
    Thanks for speaking the truth, even though it makes you a lightning rod.
    We love your site.
    I'm in my off-season, but will be sure to donate when I'm back to work in a few weeks.
    Thanks

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    1. Thanks for your kind words and support, truth with prevail in the end. Every day scientists are coming around to the fact that CO2 is not the cause of global warming and man has very little if any effect on climate. The likely cause of climate change is the various complicated earth/sun/solar system relationships that change the amount of the suns energy that reaches the earth.

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  2. http://www.skepticalscience.com/16_more_years_of_global_warming.html

    http://www.skepticalscience.com/dueling-scientists-oregonian.html

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    Replies
    1. Yes there are those that don't agree and I encourage everyone to read both sides of the debate. My site links are for those that want to read about the less publicized articles that don't generate the hype and associated high ratings.

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  3. Good list, thanks. I'm a meteorologist as well.

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  4. Nice blog and absolutely outstanding. You can do something much better but i still say this perfect.Keep trying for the best. environment

    ReplyDelete