This winter is very likely going to be a El Niño winter, possibly one of the
strongest on record. See the below map for precipitation anomalies during a typical El Niño winter. Go
to https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/united-states-el-ni%C3%B1o-impacts-0 to see the general North America El Niño winter impact. In general weak/moderate El
Niño's have no statistical impact on
the Wasatch Front and northern Utah weather, slight increase towards a wet winter in Southern Utah. A strong El
Niño like the one forecasted this
winter do slightly increase the chance of above normal precipitation for the
Wasatch Front and Northern Utah, greatly increases the chances for a wet winter in southern Utah. The last 5 strong El Niño events were 1957-1958,
1965-1966, 1972-1973, 1982-1983, and 1997-1998. In these years the Alta UDOT
November through April snowfall averaged 554" which is above the long term average
of 490". Not a big increase for Alta but it should be noted that many
of the storms during a El Niño years come from the south which is typically not
good for the Cottonwoods, much better for Sundance/Park City
areas and other areas that do well in a southerly flow.
For this winter plan on 80-90% of normal for the northern Wasatch, 90-100% for the central Wasatch, 100-110% of normal for the southern Wasatch, 110-120% for central Utah, 120%+ for southern and southeastern Utah.
