Friday, September 21, 2012

Winter forecast

My current thinking is 80-90% of normal for the northern Wasatch front this winter, around 90% for the central and southern Wasatch, 90-100% for central Utah, 110-120% for southwest Utah, 120+% for southeast Utah. The above forecast is mostly based on El Nino strengthening into a moderate event. If you look at this link http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/enso/enso.pl?output=2&variable=cdprcp&region=all&event=e&season=win&type=a you will see no real correlation between the average El Nino or La Nina event for Northern Utah. What you do see is a better chance of above normal precipitation for southern Utah during El Nino events and a better chance of below normal precipitation for southern Utah in La Nina events. Strong El Nino or La Nina events can bring above normal precipitation for northern Utah but not always.

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